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Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations

Matthew Bunkers - NWS, Rapid City, SD

Introduction

Objective: To increase operational awareness of forecasting supercell motion - leads to better nowcasts & pathcasts of severe convective weather, as well as better derived parameters.

Outline:

  1. Discuss primary mechanisms controlling supercell (and thunderstorm) motion
  2. Explain the B2K method for predicting supercell motion which includes:
    • strengths and limitations of B2K method
    • vertical wind shear perspective
  3. Provide examples of predicting supercell motion in operations
  4. Summarize and provide recommendations

Training Session Options

NOAA/NWS students - to begin the training, use the web-based video, YouTube video, or audio playback options below (if present for this session). Certificates of completion for NOAA/NWS employees can be obtained by accessing the session via the Commerce Learn Center

  1. Web-based video that can be taken at anytime (streamed, not recommended for low-bandwidth users). Be sure to have your speakers on and the volume loud enough to hear the presentation. Also be sure that you are using a flash enabled browser.
  2. Audio playback (recommended for low-bandwidth users) - This is an audio playback version in the form of a downloadable VISITview and can be taken at anytime.

    Create a directory to download the audio playback file (74 MB) from the following link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/training_sessions/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations_audio.exe

    After extracting the files into that directory click on either the visitplay.bat or visitauto.bat file to start the lesson. If both files are present, use visitauto.bat

References/Additional Links

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